Can Aung San Suu Kyi live up to Myanmar's expectations?

By MARK MACKINNON

"News of Ms. Suu Kyi’s release on Friday proved to be premature, but the generals who rule the country better known as Burma have hinted strongly she will indeed be released when her sentence expires Saturday. The question is what she will do with her freedom, if it’s granted to her."

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/asia-pacific/can-aung-san-suu-kyi-live-up-to-myanmars-expectations/article1797742/page2/

Before and After

 

http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/205403/election-sham-region-shame

Up to 5000 refugees flee into Thailand

By FRANCIS WADE

Refugees are pouring across Burma’s border into Thailand after heavy fighting erupted this morning in Myawaddy.

Estimates of the number of people fleeing vary – the UN has put the figure at 1000, while eye-witnesses say it is closer to 5,000. The International Organisation for Migration said that “between 4000 and 5000” had fled, with more arriving.

Around 400 people have sought refuge in a monastery in Mae Sot close to the Thailand-Burma Friendship Bridge. A source on the border said that more people were crossing at unofficial border checkpoints close to Myawaddy.

It comes a day after Burma held its first elections in 20 years. Aid groups had predicted that the Burmese junta would step up attacks on rebel groups along the border, but it’s unlikely anyone had foreseen how quickly violence would erupt.

Fighting began early this morning after troops from a breakaway faction of the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA) yesterday took key administrative and military positions.

Since fighting peaked several hours ago it appears to have quietened, but residents of Myawaddy have reportedly been given an hour’s warning to evacuate the town before clashes resume.

The fighting has however spread south of Myawaddy to Payathonzu, across the border from Thailand’s Three Pagodas Pass. Major Mo Shae from the DKBA said that his troops there had captured nine soldiers from the junta’s Border Guard Force.

Nai Hongsa, general secretary of the New Mon State Party (NMSP), said that people were seen fleeing Payathonzu.

Additional reporting by Naw Noreen

http://www.dvb.no/news/up-to-5000-refugees-flee-into-thailand/12704

Burma's cynical bid for approval, a rigged ballot

The military's elaborate seven-point road map is designed simply to assure the Army will still rule.

 

In democracies, going to the polls is the best method for voters to keep or remove politicians who have fulfilled or failed to respond to the needs of their constituencies. However, the scheduled election in Burma today has a different function. It merely aims to legitimise the horrible regime of General Than Shwe, who has ruled his country with an iron fist.
After decades of oppression, the regime believes that it can give itself a face-lift by staging an elaborate multi-pronged scheme of democratisation, known as a seven-point road map. This blueprint will reach its finale when the polling booths across Burma open today.
The outcome is clear: the government's nominee party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party, will win the majority. It is 20 years since the previous election, when the opposition party, led by Aung San Suu Kyi, overwhelmingly won the vote. Burma's top generals have since learnt valuable lessons on how not to be defeated again. This time around, they have devised a long-term strategy and complicated ways and means to ensure that the USDP and their cronies in various forms and colours will win big. No wonder, several townships have the audacity to declare winners ahead of the polls. The Burmese military junta leaders are clever enough to use the electoral process as an effective instrument to wash their bloody hands. After all, the world community still considers a bad election better than no election. There have been lessons aplenty offering an insight into the role elections play in failed states or underdeveloped or controlled nations.
Take for instance what happened in Afghanistan or Sudan. Subsequent international acceptance was given, although reluctantly. With that kind of political expediency, the junta has chosen to go with the growing sentiment that an election, albeit heavily rigged and managed, is better than none.
No wonder the election in Burma has generated serious division among the Burmese community both inside and outside the country. Supporters continue to view the poll as a small window to express their preferences - the only freedom they have. Some of these voters obviously want to use their votes as an ultimate tool to punish the regime that has ignored the population. For opponents, today's election is a sham and nothing positive will come out of it. It is sad that no international monitoring teams or observers are allowed to assess the real intention of the estimated 27.4 million voters.
Representatives of UN agencies and foreign missions will be allowed to visit some polling stations, but with restrictions. Repeated Asean offers to dispatch a team of observers, which would join up with their missions based inside Burma, has been ignored by the regime. Even without any cooperation, Asean is poised to accept the poll's outcome, which we already know.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/2010/11/07/opinion/Burmas-cynical-bid-for-approval-a-rigged-ballot-30141680.html

Burma soldier: 'I would never vote in this election'

Myo Myint Cho, 48, served in the Burmese army. Discharged after losing a leg and an arm in a minefield, he became a supporter of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and started giving speeches outside military bases. He was jailed for 15 years, suffering mistreatment and torture. He has lived in the US since 2008 and is the subject of a new British documentary, Burma Soldier, directed by Nic Dunlop. 

End the junta

If I were in Burma, I would never vote in this election. I never trust to the government's promises. When the junta held an election in 1990, it promised the Burmese people and the international community that it would transfer power to the elected body and return to barracks.
The military broke their promise, arrested elected candidates and threw them into prison. Now they are trying to hold another sham election to give legitimacy to the 2008 constitution, which reaffirms absolute control of the junta. So if people vote in this election, it means further legitimising of the military government.
There are different ways to weaken the junta. Some believe in armed struggle, some believe in non-violence. I believe in mass movement combined with international pressure. If we can stage mass movement – you can call it people power movement – it should be led by Aung San Suu Kyi and the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD), which won the last election in 1990 with 60% of the vote. The junta must come to the table to negotiate with democratic forces. I believe that this is the best way to weaken the regime. There is a role for economic sanctions but they are not the one and only way to change Burma's political situation. The US should continue its diplomatic pressure and should try to persuade to China, India, and other Southeast Asian countries to impose economic sanctions against the regime.
There are so many soldiers in Burma who feel like me. However, they have no opportunity to express how they feel and they dare not. On the surface, Burma's military seem to be strong, but many of the lower ranks do not like their officers as the higher-ups act only out of self-interest. Last month I heard about dissatisfied soldiers who tried to stage a demonstration. The generals routinely neglect the daily problems and needs of their soldiers, who are deserting more and more. The number of deserters is getting bigger and bigger. However, you will never be able to get an accurate number because every regiment commander always omits the number of deserters.
Very few people in Burma have access to the internet or satellite, although some people in big cities do have internet access. But many Burmese have DVD players at home, so if they have DVD or video compact discs they will be able to watch the film.
I hope it will make soldiers serving the regime think about their actions and their treatment of civilians. After watching it, they can ask themselves whether their behaviour towards civilians is good or bad, just or unjust. I hope it will help them turn towards the people and to join the people's movements.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/nov/05/burma-election-myo-myint-cho

Thai Elites see Burmese polls as a step toward democratic rule

From The Nation:
  
Even though tomorrow's Burmese elections, the first in 20 years, are not likely to be inclusive, transparent, free or fair, at least they are a major step toward democracy, Thai experts said yesterday.

"If they can hold an acceptable election this time, the new regime will have the legitimacy to run the country and engage with the international community," Sunait Chutintaranond, director of Chulalongkorn University's Institute of Asian Studies (IAS), said at a panel discussion.


[RAP: And here is the problem. The 'elections' to be held tomorrow will not be "a major step towards democracy" and neither will they be acceptable to the people of Burma who have been denied their human rights, nor to the democracy activists in Burma and overseas and not to the international community, such as it is. When Burma holds an election that is "inclusive, transparent, free [and] fair" then its government, not it's military -in or out of uniform- will be able to claim some legitimacy. Elite actors in Burma and its neighbours are quick to say this person or those people are not ready for democracy but demonstrate time and again that it is the elites themselves who are unprepared and unwilling to bring about real democratic progress.]

The current military has been in power since 1988. Its legitimacy has been questioned and criticised the world over since it refused to hand the reins over to Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Demo-cracy, which won by a landslide in 1990.

However, a country that has been under military rule since 1962 cannot turn into a full democracy right away. It needs to be a "disciplined democracy" for security reasons more than anything, Sunait said.

[RAP: The transitional process from a brutal, military dictatorship to a democracy, regardless of the methods and the stages through which society must pass cannot be guided or "disciplined" by the undisciplined criminals that stole the country and are now continuing to refuse to give it back to its people.]

The most important thing for the international community is to keep a close watch on how the regime, which is not used to a "noisy democracy", deals with the new political environment after the election, he said. [RAP: We still haven't seen whether or not there will be a "new political environment" in anything other than name.]

Although most of the candidates contesting in the poll are close to or even proxies of the military, some new elements - such as those representing ethnic minorities - and some democratic forces are being allowed to participate, said IAS's expert on Burmese affairs Pornpimol Trichote.

"We cannot expect Burma to become a 100-per-cent democratic country or have a drastic change after the elections. But I am still optimistic to see some new things in the country," she said.

[RAP: RAP hopes Khun Pornpimol is right and there will be changes after the election, but cannot share his naive optimism that there will be any significant changes.]

Like many other small and developing countries, Burma is not ready for full democracy due to security issues, said General Vipot Srinual, former deputy permanent secretary of the Defence Ministry.

[RAP: Is General Vipot referring to his own country here? The yellow and green elites in Thailand also often claim the oiks are not ready for democracy, the people of Thailand however, seem to be as ready as they'll ever be.]

"However, the country has made some progress over the years, and the election is one of the signs of growth," he said. "All countries should support this progress."

[RAP: RAP shares General Vipot's hopes that when there are "signs of growth" and "progress" that all countries will support it, alas this is not growth or progress and reasonable people will be siding with Burma's population, her activists and civil society and rejecting this embarrassing piece of poor theatre.]

Thailand, as an immediate neighbour, should understand Burma and support this new development, said Apisit Cholsakorn from the Tak Chamber of Commerce.

[RAP: What is this doing here? A businessman from Tak Chamer of Commerce, an expert? In what? In elections and developing democracies? Transitional justice? Military dictatorships? Political science?]


"Burma does not give Thailand priority in its foreign relations because they have never trusted us. So we need to prove that we are friends and ready to stand by them," he said.

Vipot suggested that the Thai government have a clear direction in its relations with Burma's new government after the election. "To build trust, we will not act as a superior or big brother in the region, but instead become a friend who is equal to them," he said.

[RAP: Do the Tak Chamber of Commerce and General Vipot want to be friends with Burma's military and business elites or with its people. RAP hopes the latter but fears the former. If Burma hopes for a friend in Thailand, they'll be hoping for a while yet.]

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/2010/11/06/politics/Experts-see-Burmese-polls-as-a-step-toward-democra-30141646.html

Cartoon from Irrawaddy Magazine:  http://www.irrawaddy.org/cartoon.php?art_id=19614

Indonesia confirms Papua torture

"... human rights groups say the Papuan villagers who were tortured were farmers.
They add that this video is evidence of the grave abuses committed by the Indonesian military in Papua, where a small group of rebels have waged a low level war for independence for decades."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11604361

Junta blocks vehicles with anti-drug stickers

The KIO publicly announced the renewal of its “War against Drugs” on October 5, setting October 15 as the deadline for a complete ban on all forms of drugs in Kachin State, and its territories in Northern Shan State.

The announcement included a warning to drug users, producers, smugglers and distributors that harsh penalties, including the death penalty, are now in place against anyone breaching KIO anti-drug laws.

http://www.kachinnews.com/news/1767-junta-blocks-vehicles-with-anti-drug-stickers.html

UN raises worries over Timor police

"UN special representative for East Timor, Ameerah Haq, praised the general stability in the southeast Asian state but raised concerns about policing and the commuting of prison terms for some involved in the unrest.
"Public confidence in the state's willingness to support the rule of law and human rights can be adversely affected if the public perceives that individuals in high profile cases are given favored treatment," she told the Security Council.

Haq said she raised the "concern" with Ramos-Horta after he lifted jail terms against those convicted for February 11, 2008 attacks against him and the prime minister, and some soldiers convicted for killing eight police officers in the 2006 troubles."

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/asia/202212/un-raises-worries-over-timor-police

Abuses will not stop co-operation with Indonesia

"The head of the Indonesian human rights group Kontras, Haris Azhar, said: ''The video clearly shows very barbaric tortures against the Papuans.''
He urged the Indonesian government ''to find out who the victims are and who the perpetrators are''.

Response is not surprised, the historical record and this present example are consistent. Of course, human rights abuses and torture carried out by allies will be overlooked and quickly forgotten. Whereas, milder abuses carried out by those who are otherwise uncooperative or disobedient will likely be punished most severely.

http://www.smh.com.au/world/abuses-will-not-stop-cooperation-with-indonesia-20101018-16qxt.html

Who cares if the election is 'free and fair'?

"... what would trigger renewed protests? The junta's instinctive need for control could result in some last-minute intimidation, sparking an explosion of pent-up rage. There have already been reports of deadly attacks on USDP campaigners in Shan State, which could be a sign of things to come."

"Is a full-blown uprising a likely scenario? It is, of course, impossible to say. But as long as the regime is betting its future on an election that will rankle in people's memory for years to come, it will never be able to end its repressive ways, and this can only mean trouble somewhere on the horizon."


http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/202229/who-cares-if-the-election-is-free-and-fair

Opening Burmese Elections to Media and Observers: Indonesia

“We don’t need foreign observers. We have abundant experience in holding elections … We don’t need to clarify the credibility of these elections to other people,” Thein Soe, the chairman of the Union Election Commission, told a news conference in the capital Naypyitaw, as quoted by Reuters.
“Besides, the election laws enacted are very balanced and easy to understand.”

http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2010/10/19/myanmar%E2%80%99s-election-could-improve-opening-media-ri.html

Army chief takes aim at 'red' officers

"His transfer can be considered as a promotion although it's a bit off the track [to the force control unit]," an army source said.

Col Pongsawas Phanchit, director of the Operations Division of the 1st Army, was appointed to replace Col Natthawat.

A source said the reason for his transfer was that Col Natthawat had been in charge of the Bangkok-based 1st Infantry Regiment for three years. Gen Prayuth was not confident Col Natthawat could carry out his work any longer. Also, he was connected to Gen Chavalit.

"Gen Prayuth is still concerned about soldiers who are close to the red shirts," the source said."

Response wonders whether, to the officer affected, it feels like a promotion.

And in the lower ranks of a top heavy army, after the thought criminals have been cleared out, how many would be left?

"The latest transfers are viewed as a move to ensure Gen Prayuth has reliable subordinates who can follow his orders to the letter."

Gulp.

It was reported some military units did not deal with the red shirt protesters as he wanted.



http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politics/202058/army-chief-takes-aim-at-red-officers

The Thai Army Stands Up

Thais have backed strong military action before. In 2003, the Thaksin administration launched a "war on drugs" that saw the security forces kill more than 2,000 people, many in extrajudicial police shootings. The international media, the United Nations and foreign governments severely criticized the campaign. However, polls showed that 90% of Thais, weary of a tsunami of illegal drugs from Burma, were heartily supportive. The crackdown worked: Thailand saw an unprecedented drop in narcotics trafficking for a considerable period of time and permanently dismantled several longstanding narcotics trafficking networks.
That may be the kind of leadership that General Prayuth aims to provide, although his personal political views are unclear. He has not discussed elections or the government's plans for political "reconciliation" with disaffected pro-democracy supporters. But if Thai history teaches one thing, it's that Thais should be wary of anyone who promises to restore order. Democratic reform, governance transparency and public accountability could be the casualties.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304410504575559654154085706.html

Intelligence unit to return to Khin Nyunt days

"Under Khin Nyunt, who headed DDSI for 20 years and became prime minister in August 2003, Burma’s dissident community was placed under lock and key. It is thought that the work undercover reporters do now and the amount of information leaving the country would not have been possible in Khin Nyunt’s day, when surveillance was all-seeing and communication among intelligence circles proficient."

http://www.dvb.no/news/intelligence-unit-to-return-to-khin-nyunt-days/12265

Live Ammunition for Indonesian Riot Police

Police in Indonesia are now allowed to use live ammunition for riot control, with a new regulation intended for use against uncooperative and violent protesters.

Clare Atkinson spoke with SBS' Indonesia correspondent Rebecca Henschke about the new rules.

http://www.sbs.com.au/podcasts/Podcasts/world-view/episode/117912/Live-ammunition-for-Indonesian-riot-police

Thai Style Human Rights

http://asiancorrespondent.com/siamvoices/thai-style-human-rights

As Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva heads to Europe in a further attempt to gloss over Thailand’s increasingly poor human rights reputation, an account outlining torture, beatings and coercion by the Thai Army against Redshirt pro-democracy activists has emerged.

General Prayut on His New Job

http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2010/10/01/general-prayut-on-his-new-job/

This page links to a horribly supine article in the Bangkok Post too. Dark days indeed to come for Siam.